About
ABOUT THE COURSE
Matching supply and demand is at the heart of successful operational planning. Meeting future demand accurately requires demand planners to effectively judge internal and external factors to ensure business more accurately forecast what their industry, market and customers will require.
If demand is underestimated, sales can be lost due to the lack of supply of goods. If demand is overestimated, the supplier is left with a surplus that can also be a financial drain.
Demand management and forecasting takes supply chain management to the next level. This course will help your business be better prepared to meet the actual demands of the industry, market and customers.
LEARNING OUTCOMES
- Gain buy–in from your company for demand planning through higher inventory turns and higher customer service
- Leverage on the value of internal and external factors that leads to more accurate forecasts
- Understand and develop forecasting models and approaches
- Plan and develop more accurate forecasts for trend and seasonality, promotions and product life cycle changes
- Mitigate risks of inaccurate demand forecasts through improvements and collaborations
Course Outline
COURSE OUTLINE
Overview of forecasting process and function
- Identifying problems and needs
- Reviewing current process management
Forecasting models
- Developing forecasting model
- Identifying and communicating with participants and users
- Forecasting process approaches
- Independent
- Concentrated
- Consensus
- One Number
- Breaking down silo forecasting
Data patterns and demand variability
- The Bullwhip/Whiplash/Forrester effect
- How to minimise demand variability
- Mitigating stockouts with inventory buffers
- Identifying problems in the data
Demand planning
- How to increase forecast accuracy
- Seasonality
- Promotions and events
- Product life cycle changes
- Unlocking new profit potential
Forecasting systems
Qualitative:
- Jury of Executive Opinion
- Sales Force Composite
- Market Research Method
- Delphi Method
Quantitative:
- Time Series Methods
- Causal Methods
- Simulation Methods
Time series demand models
- Inherent assumptions
- Systematic component: Level, Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality, Noise
- Random component
Cause and effect models
- Regression models
- How to do forecasting by regression analysis
- Trend analysis
- Modeling seasonality and trend
Reducing risk and impact of inaccurate demand forecast
- Forecast error metrics
- Error analysis, communication and remediation
- Improving forecast accuracy
- Improving forecast cycle times
- Collaborating with key customers/suppliers
- Relationship between MAPE / Bias, Customer Service and Inventory KPIs
New product forecasting
- New product success and error rates
- New product planning vs. new product forecasting
- New product forecasting benchmarks
Promotions forecast
- Internal and external factors that affect the demand patterns
- Manage the process for unplanned and abnormal demand
- Challenges in developing promotions forecasts
Facilitator
Keith Robinson
Keith Robinson has almost 20 years of supply chain experience working in New Zealand and Europe. He has worked in industries as diverse as automotive, plastics, pharmaceuticals, timber, electronic, clothing and distribution.
Keith consults on a very broad range of supply chain management issues, offering strategic advice and training on all facets of supply with a “sustainable lowest total cost” focus.
Keith has presented at conferences both in New Zealand and internationally, has lectured at a tertiary level and is also involved in NZQA assessment. He facilitates the internationally recognised C.P.M. (Certified Purchasing Manager) qualification in New Zealand.
Keith is on the “Council” of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport as well as various other professional committees.
Keith Robinson is also facilitating:
In-house Training
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