Demand Management and Forecasting

About

ABOUT THE COURSE

Matching supply and demand is at the heart of successful operational planning. Meeting future demand accurately requires demand planners to effectively judge internal and external factors to ensure business more accurately forecast what their industry, market and customers will require.

If demand is underestimated, sales can be lost due to the lack of supply of goods. If demand is overestimated, the supplier is left with a surplus that can also be a financial drain. 

Demand management and forecasting takes supply chain management to the next level. This course will help your business be better prepared to meet the actual demands of the industry, market and customers.

 

LEARNING OUTCOMES

  • Gain buy–in from your company for demand planning through higher inventory turns and higher customer service
  • Leverage on the value of internal and external factors that leads to more accurate forecasts
  • Understand and develop forecasting models and approaches
  • Plan and develop more accurate forecasts for trend and seasonality, promotions and product life cycle changes
  • Mitigate risks of inaccurate demand forecasts through improvements and collaborations

Course Outline

COURSE OUTLINE

Overview of forecasting process and function

  • Identifying problems and needs
  • Reviewing current process management

 

Forecasting models

  • Developing forecasting model
  • Identifying and communicating with participants and users
  • Forecasting process approaches
  1. Independent
  2. Concentrated
  3. Consensus
  4. One Number
  • Breaking down silo forecasting

 

Data patterns and demand variability

  • The Bullwhip/Whiplash/Forrester effect
  • How to minimise demand variability
  • Mitigating stockouts with inventory buffers
  • Identifying problems in the data

 

Demand planning

  • How to increase forecast accuracy
  • Seasonality
  • Promotions and events
  • Product life cycle changes
  • Unlocking new profit potential

 

Forecasting systems

Qualitative:

  • Jury of Executive Opinion
  • Sales Force Composite
  • Market Research Method
  • Delphi Method

 

Quantitative:

  • Time Series Methods
  • Causal Methods
  • Simulation Methods

 

Time series demand models

  • Inherent assumptions
  • Systematic component: Level, Trend, Seasonality, Cyclicality, Noise
  • Random component

 

Cause and effect models

  • Regression models
  • How to do forecasting by regression analysis
  • Trend analysis
  • Modeling seasonality and trend

 

Reducing risk and impact of inaccurate demand forecast

  • Forecast error metrics
  • Error analysis, communication and remediation
  • Improving forecast accuracy
  • Improving forecast cycle times
  • Collaborating with key customers/suppliers
  • Relationship between MAPE / Bias, Customer Service and Inventory KPIs

 

New product forecasting

  • New product success and error rates
  • New product planning vs. new product forecasting
  • New product forecasting benchmarks

 

Promotions forecast

  • Internal and external factors that affect the demand patterns
  • Manage the process for unplanned and abnormal demand
  • Challenges in developing promotions forecasts

Facilitator

Keith Robinson

Keith Robinson has almost 20 years of supply chain experience working in New Zealand and Europe. He has worked in industries as diverse as automotive, plastics, pharmaceuticals, timber, electronic, clothing and distribution.

Keith consults on a very broad range of supply chain management issues, offering strategic advice and training on all facets of supply with a “sustainable lowest total cost” focus.

Keith has presented at conferences both in New Zealand and internationally, has lectured at a tertiary level and is also involved in NZQA assessment. He facilitates the internationally recognised C.P.M. (Certified Purchasing Manager) qualification in New Zealand.

Keith is on the “Council” of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport as well as various other professional committees.


In-house Training

Do you have a number of staff who would benefit from this course? Find out more about running Demand Management and Forecasting, in-house at your organisation or ask us about our team training discounts:

Contact the Training Team on 09 912 3616 or email training@brightstar.co.nz or fill in the form below.
Visit www.brightstar.co.nz/inhouse to learn more about our in-house training options & training packages.

Do you have a number of staff who would benefit from this course? Find out more about running Demand Management and Forecasting, in-house at your organisation or ask us about our team training discounts:

Contact the Training Team on 09 912 3616 or email training@brightstar.co.nz or fill in the form below.
Visit www.brightstar.co.nz/inhouse to learn more about our in-house training options & training packages.